The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today announced at its 2026 Commercial/Multifamily Finance Convention and Expo that total commercial mortgage origination volume is forecasted to increase to $805.5 billion in 2026 from the $633.7 billion expected in 2025. Multifamily origination volume is expected to increase as well to $399.2 billion in 2026 from the $330.6 billion expected in 2025.
MBA's 2026 economic and market outlook was presented by Mike Fratantoni, Chief Economist and Senior Vice President for Research and Business Development; Reggie Booker, Associate Vice President of CREF Research; and Judith Ricks, Associate Vice President of CREF Research.
“The U.S. economy continues to grow, but unevenly. The job market is softening, driven primarily by a slowdown in hiring, while the pace of layoffs is beginning to pick up. Inflation is likely to rise further, at least in part due to the pass-through of tariffs to consumers,” said Fratantoni. “MBA forecasts that GDP grew 2.3 percent in 2025, but will slow in the next two years, with growth projections of 1.9 percent this year and 1.7 percent in 2027. The unemployment rate will average 4.5 percent in 2026, up from 4.3 percent in 2025.”
Added Fratantoni, “With the job market softening but inflation staying stubbornly above the Federal Reserve's 2 percent target, we expect only one cut in the federal funds target this year. Persistently large federal budget deficits, and growing pressure on sovereign debt markets worldwide, will put pressure on the longer-term rates, and we expect further steepening of the Treasury yield curve as a result.”
MBA forecasts that the 10-year Treasury yield will average 4.2 percent in 2026. This macro environment and growing confidence that property values have stabilized will support strong origination growth in 2026. Furthermore, although the maturity wall has diminished somewhat, many loans are maturing in 2026 and will need to be refinanced. The steeper yield curve will likely continue the trend where commercial borrowers pivot to shorter-term loans.
Strong originations at the end of 2025 suggest a significant pipeline of commercial mortgage activity flowing into 2026. In addition, it shows that many borrowers had the opportunity to refinance loans that were approaching maturity.
“The CRE lending market showed strength throughout 2025. Commercial originations increased year-over-year during the first six months, and this growth continued in the second half of the year,” said Ricks. “The multifamily market experienced similar strength throughout the year, and that is expected to continue in 2026. We believe much of this activity came from refinance and acquisition activity as borrowers were able to take advantage of relatively favorable rates. As a result, we expect this to reduce the amount of mortgage debt scheduled to mature over the next few years.”
Delinquency rates across property types and capital sources increased slightly between the first and third quarters of 2025. The still-large number of loans scheduled to mature in 2026 will likely lead to additional increases in delinquencies for older-vintage loans.
“2025 was an active year for commercial real estate lending, with strong origination activity across all commercial capital sources," said Booker. “Many borrowers took advantage of favorable rates to refinance or acquire properties, setting the stage for continued growth into 2026.”
MBA’s new CREF forecast is available here. The Economic Forecast and Mortgage Finance Forecast can be viewed here.