The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Builder Application Survey (BAS) data for November 2019 shows mortgage applications for new home purchases increased 27.1 percent compared from a year ago. Compared to October 2019, applications decreased by 17 percent. This change does not include any adjustment for typical seasonal patterns.

MBA estimates new single-family home sales were running at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 688,000 units in November 2019, based on data from the BAS. The new home sales estimate is derived using mortgage application information from the BAS, as well as assumptions regarding market coverage and other factors.

"Applications for new home purchases continue to outperform last year's pace, and November was no different. Activity last month was 27 percent higher than November 2018," said Joel Kan, MBA's Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. "On a seasonally-adjusted monthly basis, new home sales decreased to the slowest pace since June 2019, which points to some weakness as this year comes to an end. The healthy job market, increased new home construction, and rising household formation support growth heading into 2020, but affordability challenges in many markets and economic uncertainty pose as headwinds."

The seasonally adjusted estimate for November is a decrease of 13 percent from the October pace of 791,000 units. On an unadjusted basis, MBA estimates that there were 51,000 new home sales in November 2019, a decrease of 16.4 percent from 61,000 new home sales in October.

By product type, conventional loans composed 69.2 percent of loan applications, FHA loans composed 18.0 percent, RHS/USDA loans composed 0.6 percent and VA loans composed 12.2 percent. The average loan size of new homes increased from $335,235 in October to $337,943 in November.

MBA's Builder Application Survey tracks application volume from mortgage subsidiaries of home builders across the country. Utilizing this data, as well as data from other sources, MBA is able to provide an early estimate of new home sales volumes at the national, state, and metro level. This data also provides information regarding the types of loans used by new home buyers. Official new home sales estimates are conducted by the Census Bureau on a monthly basis. In that data, new home sales are recorded at contract signing, which is typically coincident with the mortgage application.