"...there are a lot of interested parties that depend on the futures market that are being hurt.
Like whom?
I don't know, Douger. Ben Bernanke, along with just about every other economist out there certainly seems to think everything is okay the way it is. Bernanke said recently in his remarks to Congress that he sees no impact on supply and demand attributable to speculation, citing declining oil inventories as evidence that speculation is not driving the market.
The spot price of West Texas intermediate crude oil soared about 60 percent in 2007 and, thus far this year, has climbed an additional 50 percent or so. The price of oil currently stands at about five times its level toward the beginning of this decade. Our best judgment is that this surge in prices has been driven predominantly by strong growth in underlying demand and tight supply conditions in global oil markets. Over the past several years, the world economy has expanded at its fastest pace in decades, leading to substantial increases in the demand for oil. Moreover, growth has been concentrated in developing and emerging market economies, where energy consumption has been further stimulated by rapid industrialization and by government subsidies that hold down the price of energy faced by ultimate users ...
The argument that speculators don't take delivery of oil is a red herring because they sell those contracts to refiners and distributors before the contract expires. Besides, there's no more incentive to bet that the price will rise than to bet that it will drop. In fact, speculation in oil futures is currently trending downward, so if prices do go up, it won't be because of them.
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